Including spatial distribution in a data‐driven rainfall‐runoff model to improve reservoir inflow forecasting in Taiwan          下载免费PDF全文

Meng‐Jung Tsai  Robert J. Abrahart  Nick J. Mount  Fi‐John Chang 《水文研究》2014,28(3):1055-1070

Multi‐step ahead inflow forecasting has a critical role to play in reservoir operation and management in Taiwan during typhoons as statutory legislation requires a minimum of 3‐h warning to be issued before any reservoir releases are made. However, the complex spatial and temporal heterogeneity of typhoon rainfall, coupled with a remote and mountainous physiographic context, makes the development of real‐time rainfall‐runoff models that can accurately predict reservoir inflow several hours ahead of time challenging. Consequently, there is an urgent, operational requirement for models that can enhance reservoir inflow prediction at forecast horizons of more than 3 h. In this paper, we develop a novel semi‐distributed, data‐driven, rainfall‐runoff model for the Shihmen catchment, north Taiwan. A suite of Adaptive Network‐based Fuzzy Inference System solutions is created using various combinations of autoregressive, spatially lumped radar and point‐based rain gauge predictors. Different levels of spatially aggregated radar‐derived rainfall data are used to generate 4, 8 and 12 sub‐catchment input drivers. In general, the semi‐distributed radar rainfall models outperform their less complex counterparts in predictions of reservoir inflow at lead times greater than 3 h. Performance is found to be optimal when spatial aggregation is restricted to four sub‐catchments, with up to 30% improvements in the performance over lumped and point‐based models being evident at 5‐h lead times. The potential benefits of applying semi‐distributed, data‐driven models in reservoir inflow modelling specifically, and hydrological modelling more generally, are thus demonstrated. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

缺少控制点的星载SAR遥感影像对地目标定位   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：2  

袁修孝  吴颖丹 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(1)

从距离和多普勒方程出发,构建了无需地面控制点的直接对地目标定位模型,推导了缺少控制点时的精化轨道参数及成像几何参数等的数学模型。经过对北京某地区一景ENVISAT ASAR影像进行直接对地目标定位,获得了实地上±170.966 m(约±8.7像素)的平面精度;利用单个地面控制点对星载SAR影像的定向参数实施调整后,对地目标定位平面精度提高到±54.665 m(约±2.8像素),控制点数目增加到4个时,对地目标定位平面精度接近±2像素。结果显示,对困难地区采用星载SAR遥感影像对地目标定位具有很好的应用前景。  相似文献   

基于不同轨道高度iHCO通信卫星的CAPS星座优化研究     

徐小钧  艾国祥  马利华  林荣超 《天文研究与技术》2014,(4):350-355

基于通信卫星的导航系统可以利用比地球静止轨道（Geostationary Earth Orbit,GEO）高约200 km的倾斜高圆轨道（inclined Highly Circular Orbit,iHCO）通信卫星组成导航星座.结合两种轨道高度的倾斜高圆轨道通信卫星,仿真分析了利用倾斜高圆轨道卫星组成的中国区域定位系统（Chinese Area Positioning System,CAPS）的导航性能,并讨论了利用倾斜高圆轨道卫星组成的中国区域定位系统实现中国区域覆盖的最佳星座布局.  相似文献   

星载SAR地形辐射校正模型及其效果评价     

陈尔学  李增元  田昕  凌飞龙 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(3)

根据合成孔径雷达(SAR)严格成像几何模型和辐射定标公式建立了地形辐射校正(TRC)模型。通过实验,从定性和定量两个方面评价了TRC模型的有效性。比较了基于投影角和基于当地入射角两种计算有效散射单元面积的方法,对根据初始定位模型计算有效散射单元面积的合理性进行了分析。  相似文献   

一种基于级联滤波算法的SAR图像噪声抑制方法     

岳春宇  江万寿 《测绘信息与工程》2010,35(6):4-6

提出了一种基于偏微分方程与增强Lee滤波级联算法的SAR图像相干斑抑制方法,利用偏微分方程的边界检测特性和增强Lee滤波方法的分区域处理特性,在保持图像细节的基础上有效抑制图像中的相干斑噪声。  相似文献   

Elastic fields in two joined transversely isotropic media of infinite extent as a result of rectangular loading     

H. T. Xiao  Z. Q. Yue 《国际地质力学数值与分析法杂志》2013,37(3):247-277

This paper presents the closed‐form solutions for the elastic fields in two bonded rocks induced by rectangular loadings. Each of the two bonded rocks behaves as a transversely isotropic linear elastic solid of semi‐infinite extent. They are completely bonded together at a horizontal surface. The rectangular loadings are body forces along either vertical or horizontal directions and are uniformly applied on a rectangular area. The rectangular area is embedded in the two bonded rocks and is parallel to the horizontal interface. The classical integral transforms are used in the solution formulation, and the elastic solutions are expressed in the forms of elementary harmonic functions for the rectangular loadings. The stresses and displacements in the rocks induced by both the horizontal and vertical body forces are also presented. The numerical results illustrate the important effect of the anisotropic bimaterial properties on the stress and displacement fields. The solutions can be easily implemented for numerical calculations and applied to problems encountered in rock mechanics and engineering. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

合成孔径雷达反演裸露地表土壤水分的新方法   总被引：4，自引：0，他引：4  

余凡  赵英时 《武汉大学学报(信息科学版)》2010,(3)

提出了一种新的合成孔径雷达(SAR)反演裸露地表土壤水分的经验模型,该模型同时考虑了均方根高度S和相关长度L的影响,并将两个粗糙度参数合二为一,然后利用VV和VH极化的后向散射系数即可反演得到土壤水分。通过实测数据对模型进行了验证,发现在θ020°时,模型反演值与模拟值有着良好的相关关系(R2=0.71)。该模型在不需要测量地面粗糙度的情况下可以反演得到比较好的土壤水分精度,尤其适用于地表情况复杂、难以精确测量的地区。  相似文献   

Integration of remote sensing data into hydrological models for reservoir management     

C. LOUMAGNE  M. NORMAND  M. RIFFARD  A. WEISSE  A. QUESNEY  S. LE HÉGARAT-MASCLE 《水文科学杂志》2013,58(1):89-102

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to present the methodology set up to derive catchment soil moisture from Earth Observation (EO) data using microwave spaceborne Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) images from ERS satellites and to study the improvements brought about by an assimilation of this information into hydrological models. The methodology used to derive EO data is based on the appropriate selection of land cover types for which the radar signal is mainly sensitive to soil moisture variations. Then a hydrological model is chosen, which can take advantage of the new information brought by remote sensing. The assimilation of soil moisture deduced from EO data into hydrological models is based principally on model parameter updating. The main assumption of this method is that the better the model simulates the current hydrological system, the better the following forecast will be. Another methodology used is a sequential one based on Kalman filtering. These methods have been put forward for use in the European AIMWATER project on the Seine catchment upstream of Paris (France) where dams are operated to alleviate floods in the Paris area.  相似文献   

Comparison of genetic algorithms and shuffled complex evolution approach for calibrating distributed rainfall–runoff model     

Yu‐Chi Wang  Pao‐Shan Yu  Tao‐Chang Yang 《水文研究》2010,24(8):1015-1026

Three methods, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE), Simple Genetic Algorithm (SGA) and Micro‐Genetic Algorithm (µGA), are applied in parameter calibration of a grid‐based distributed rainfall–runoff model (GBDM) and compared by their performances. Ten and four historical storm events in the Yan‐Shui Creek catchment, Taiwan, provide the database for model calibration and verification, respectively. The study reveals that the SCE, SGA and µGA have close calibration results, and none of them are superior with respect to all the performance measures, i.e. the errors of time to peak, peak discharge and the total runoff volume, etc. The performances of the GBDM for the verification events are slightly worse than those in the calibration events, but still quite satisfactory. Among the three methods, the SCE seems to be more robust than the other two approaches because of the smallest influence of different initial random number seeds on calibrated model parameters, and has the best performance of verification with a relatively small number of calibration events. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献